Fatalistic or Realistic ...A look at Congregations
Fatalistic or Realistic
Congregations--once strong in worship, Sunday school, and giving—face extraordinary pressure just to manage the decline. Congregations at less than guidelines for full time compensation/calls to pastors are becoming a majority. Faithful people and faith-filled communities wonder what has happened. Why is it so different now?
This is not a new conversation. The trends, demographics and predictions of almost twenty years ago are now lived out daily in congregations throughout the ELCA, mainline partners as well as almost everybody else.
For the most part congregations, pastors, seminaries, and denominational leaders have held their breath hoping things would be different and, truthfully, they have only gotten more severe. From 1992 forward, the experts in church growth and change “business” published lots of books, held many seminars, and told us if we did THIS then it would all work; in almost all cases these books, models, and prepackaged solutions were unsuccessful in approach or application.
My question is what are you seeing out there? Let’s start talking.
Should We Define Decline?
What I predominantly see, in the people who go to church around me, is the beginning of a rebirth, a renewed understanding of the gospel, and recognition that a one-size-fits-all-approach in church won’t work now. There is currently less societal agreement that regular church attendance is part of our civic duty or being a good neighbor. That, together with our neighborhoods becoming increasingly pluralistic and non-Christian, contributes to the feeling that church must play a different future role in our society.
Since “trends, demographics and predictions” are referenced, I assume the focus and measure of church “decline” here is primarily overall church attendance. The “Fatalistic or Realistic” makes sense as a title in this context. Of course, there are many trends and demographics that are outside of what is happening within the church that would affect church attendance. The change of the cultural background of immigrants to the U.S. from largely Eurpopean countries might be a factor in attendance figures. The current choice of having smaller families might be another.
If congregations, pastors, seminaries and denominational leaders are holding their breath hoping things will soon or simply be different in church membership numbers, it may well be time to breathe and concentrate on new hopes.
How to measure “decline” is not a new part of this conversation either. Should numerical growth and trends in attendance assess the effectiveness and fruitfulness of ministry efforts or the church now? Should there be an assumption that a percentage of people touched by congregational missions will become future church members? Are there other ways to understand and measure what is happening in today's church?
Certainly smaller, closer fellowships can have benefits some churches may not have experienced before. And, just as certainly, there are challenges in trying to manage buildings and pay staff with fewer resources coming in. There may be less time and energy spent on spreading the gospel life.
I reflect on how, In 2009, our ELCA Churchwide Assembly changed policy regarding GLBT ministry policies. When I was young, I wouldn’t have imagined that would have happened. Even a few years before the change I wouldn’t have imagined the church making this decision in the time frame that it did.
Is this church in decline?
Wait and see...what?
As you have made very clear, there are problems with our current models of church. Few people are coming, and almost no one is "converting". We are not making Christianity a viable, thriving idea for the world and it is reflected in our populations. Those few new members we do get come from religious families that have, by some miracle, made their way back to the church. This is a rare occurance, despite what every boomer parent hopes will happen.
In talking with many boomer and older members I have noticed that their is a lot of people that are still in the "wait and see" mindset. Despite the fact that their children and even grandchildren don't come to church more than once or twice a year, they still hold onto the hope that they will become church members, "someday". I don't quite understand why they hold onto this hope. They often tell me that they speak with their children about church, but don't really get anywhere. They take comfort in the fact that their kids have some "spiritual" practices (often eastern practices like Buddism) and think that this means that someday the kids will find a church.
I find myself gettng frustrated by the "wait and see" approach. People seem to be hoping that the younger generations will join the church and do all the work of transforming it to fit our rapidly changing culture. But when their kids actually talk to them about the things they don't like or would like to see change, the older set just shoots them down and says it can't be done. Or worse yet they acknowledge the problems but then don't want to do anything to change them.
There seems to be a kind of lethargy around change and challenge within our churches and I am searching for a way to motivate people, particularly boomers. What would make them feel compelled to get out their and stand up for something? How do we make it clear that we don't have any more time to "wait and see"?
See . . . what?
I'm a boomer. For what it's worth, I heard the same thing about us when we were the up-and-coming generation that Travis is saying about the kids and grandkids of the boomers.
I watched a major changing of the guard in the last congregation I served. I think they had ideas to make it happen differently than the leadership before them. But, once settled into position, I think they are as content with their spiritual space, much of which is defined by congregational and structural intimacy, as those that have gone before them.
I think there will not be substantial change? open-ness? growth (in all it's iterations) of church ? until we begin intentionally living out our faiths in the world. I think anything less is standing behind the barrier hoping people will crawl over it to get in with us. I don't think it will take any more than that to see people who are not part of the church become attracted to what goes on behind the barrier.
Living out the faith in life is being Christ to the other where we are. Living out our faith is seeing Christ in the other. Living out faith in life is letting the other be Christ for us.
Either the gospel is compelling or not. If church is not compelling, then maybe we need to reevaluate how the church is being the gospel.
How to change with change?
"Change." The word has many connotations.
What I know is that everything changes, and if we want to maintain our structures, we have adapt to that change. If we're wise enough, we anticipate change or even create "change" to our advantage.
As previous comments have stated, our church is struggling with change. If you look at the membership figures of ELCA synods, they're declining, some sharply. If this were my business, I'd be very worried: I won't have any customers in a few years. My revenue is going to decline and with that, so is my ability to conduct my business.
Lucky businesses: Like churches, they can cut expenses, but it's far easier for them to raise prices or rates and go out and search for new customers than it is for churches. The church can't just "raise rates," and in today's society, it seems very difficult to find new "customers."
In 2010, the keynote speaker at the SW Washington Synod Assembly was Dr. James K. Wellman, Jr., an ordained Presbyterian minister and a professor of comparative religion at the University of Washington. He talked about how "evangelical" churches are gaining members: As I remember, they identify a market and go after it. They make their facilities as family friendly as possible. They pay their youth pastor more than their lead pastor, and they hire good musicians to help the "worship team" put on an exciting service.
Traditional mainline churches, on the other hand, tend to stick to their traditional worship style, which in the right hands, can be very exciting, but just as often doesn't connect with people not raised in our tradition. In my experience, the concept of marketing is too commercial for church leaders to stomach, and with declining revenue, there's not money for it anyway. Besides, the pastor is parttime and . . .
(For the complete message, see Wellman's latest book, "Evangelical vs. Liberal: The Clash of Christian Cultures in the Pacific Northwest.")
Change is hard. As a businessman, I don't enjoy constantly havng to deal with new challenges just to stay in business, but I do deal with them to stay in business. I think it will take awareness and concern on the part of a congregation that there is a need to adapt if they're going to survive. They need to focus on growth and try to get ahead of the wave. As others have said, they need to think big. But if they, and by extension, "we," don't act, they/we won't survive.
In 20 years you'll be obsolete...
Those were the words from David Swartling to a handful of students, inlcuding me, sitting in the back of a Pacific Lutheran Theological Seminary Board of Directors meeting in the spring of 2007. They weren't particularly comforting words then and today they ring more true than ever. I am going on my fifth year of ministry in the rural Pacific Northwest. In that time some wonderful things have happened. Our worship attendance and budget have increased dramatically. Participation in social ministries is at an all time high. And, the awareness of our congregation in the community is at its peak since the early 2000's. Still, if asked to honestly assess our viability for 2025, I would have to say, "marginal".
As mentioned above, four of our five largest giving units are in their 70's. Those 5 account for more than 30% of the entire budget.
The primary call for change and the most significant resistance to change come from the same demographic, and in some instances the same people.
The beauty of social and theological diversity within our congregation (and denomination) makes it extremely difficult to be a church with clear mores that leak into political issues.
I see the future of the church addressing these issues not with new programs or "exciting" worship experiences, but with a renewed commitment to the Great Commission and the making of disciples. As Jesus walked with those closest to him he modeled a whole life approach to our relationship with God. It was a balanced approach to God, closest friends, and those outside (the crowds and opponents). As disciples of Christ we must discover these rhythms and begin to live them, to teach them, and to preach them from every pulpit available to us. The passion for a Christ crucified for the redemption of a broken world is an uncontrollable pathogen.
What American Evangelical Christianity is not is polite or timid. They are bold in their beliefs and their proclamations. They stand convicted of scripture and are willing to tell anyone who comes close. We can no longer afford to be polite, quiet, ethno-Centric Sunday morning worshippers. We must create a culture that is on fire for Christ every minute of every day. What that looks like must be extremely contextual. Gone are the days of recognizing Lutheran worship and communities across the land. Coming are the days of a widely diverse body that remains unified by the teaching of the Holy Scriptures and the Confessions of our forefathers.
Hopefully, the ELCA will exist as something other than a memory and a pension fund by 2025. If it so chooses the ELCA has the ability to take the lead to tackle each of these issues. If not, our declining denomination will be a dead denomination. But, if that happens I will continue to be a disciple and to work to create disciples wherever the Holy Spirit may drag me and I think that is enough to make the "Church" viable until Christ comes again. "If you make disciples, you will always get the church. But if you try to build the church, you will rarely get disciples." - Mike Breen
Hoping to be the future of an ELCA that is closer to God, closer to one another, and more readily available to a changing world.
-Eric
Marketing
Thank you for this, Rick. I am constantly befuddled by the fact that congregations refuse to think of themselves as businesses. BUSINESS MEN AND WOMEN ARISE!
I understand that churches are also different and that the bottom line isn't always the point. Love, acceptance and proclamation is the point. WE take up our cross with the expectation of death. But, if we're going to organize like a business we need to think like a business, too.
Evangelicals are indeed better at this. However, we must not assume they in any way have the answer. There are successful Evangelical congregations and failing Evangelical congregations - just a there are for us in the ELCA. However, there are no "denomination" statistics for Evangelical. What we see are the Crystal Cathedrals and success points. The point for all of us is that we've lost our currency with the culture. In business terms our "consumer base" views the church to be selling a product they simply have no interest in. Both within the ELCA and North America Christianity as a whole there is a great shuffling of the deck chairs. There is not, however - for any of us - a pattern of success with the increasing numbers of people who just aren't interested in what we're selling.
"If we wish to maintain our structures we have to adapt to change." Here is the hard one for me. Stated on the congregational (franchise) level this may be a problem. We can't maintain all our individual, church building, structures. We have to "downsize" or reconfigure how we as a denomination do church. If we're talking about denominational "structures" this may also be an issue. Do they serve us? The NT is not about structure. Its witness is always to doing and process. Even the Body of Christ language, "some apostles, some treaching, some prophets . . ." is really more about creativity than concrete. "Some are sent, some are teaching, some are critiquing the world around them . . ." That's really the point here for me. This is not an organizational chart.
So thanks, Rick. This is exactly where I think we're at. GM can start making electric cars, but are cars of any sort the future? We in the Church have to ask ourselves our version of this questions big time!
Niche Marketing
It is good to bring the conversation to marketing. It seems to me that the mainline and the so called Evangelical churches are engaged in niche marketing.
Many “Evangelical” churches market to suburban and small city families with a conservative political leanings, who are upwardly mobile.
Many mainline churches as a result of the legacy of Christendom are middle class or above, well educated, white, with liberal political leanings.
The problem is that the both demographics are in decline. It hit mainliners first. As a result we found our “franchises” in neighborhoods that did not reflect their memberships. Now that economy has fundamentally changed the “Evangelical” churches are having their problems. I have talked with some of my “Evangelical” colleagues that are speaking of the finical problems they are beginning to face.
The church catholic of North America needs to become more diverse, particularly on a social-- economic level.
On a practical level we need to look at simple things like the art in our hymnals, how our web sites are laid out, and where we hold our meetings. Are we concerned about poor working moms who work at target as we are with the more hot issues?
We need to look at our congregations differently. Maybe we need to moving toward “company stores” rather than “franchises”. Some stores in lower economic communities need support from the company through salary equitation. We are called to be one in Christ not independent. In our current model it is impossible to start new ministries in poor white, migrant, emigrant, or native communities, etc because these ministries will not become self supporting in 3 years. But these are growing demographics.
More importantly we need to look at our attitudes. I have heard my ELCA colleagues say things like things like “ red-necks cannot be saved”, and the rural working class community were I serve as “too conservative for a Lutheran church. I have come to meetings where pastors were making fun of those driving pickups with rifle racks, on the day I drove my wife’s truck with a rifle rack in it.
It has been hard enough for me to try to fit into the ELCA coming from an aluminum mill town, being educated at a community college with single moms putting their lives back together and in “cow college” at OSU with people like the guy from Donald who rode rodeo and the guy who grew up on a tractor in Wamic. But I grew up in the church. I can just imagine how hard it would be for someone who did not.
We need to take Jesus words in the great commission more literally and broadly. We are to go to “ALL NATIONS” We must remember that Jesus called a tax collector and a Zealot to be among the Twelve. Can both occupy and the tea party find welcome and a new life in the church. We are called proclaim the gospel in the Pearl District, Vernoia, Lake Oswego, Falls City, Sun River, Nyssa, Lents, Warm Springs and to the ends of the earth.
Belonging
A number of years ago, the young pastor of youth and family at the Nazarene church down the street approached me and asked if I had any ashes for Ash Wed, because they wanted to incorporate the imposition of ashes in their ash Wednesday service. I was happy to oblige and felt great that our liturgical tradition was recognized and honored. Every year since then, I have divided our little pouch of ashes (received from the catholic supplies store in Boise) and brought them to him down the street.
We now have a board of directors for a childcare ministry we hope to start here, and one member of the board is a Catholic, who more importantly is the director of the local DHS office.
A guy who works at the water treatment plant (I know him from the coffee shop) spontaneously starts telling me about a family tragedy involving murder and reconciliation.
I'm working on some guiding principles which will certainly change over time..
"It is assumed that you belong
"When you become part of us, we are willing to be changed by this new relationship
"At St Paul, no one is lonely
"We are bold enough to pray together
"We help discern one another's gifts for ministry
"We are always on retreat together
We don't do a very good job at our congregation with the message. We sometimes get into the mode of thinking "even our children don't like coming here, therefore we have nothing to offer. We stay because of duty." I suppose it's a natural response to rejection.
This is the beginning of a long season of the Holy Spirit. According to Jesus we do not know from where it comes or where it is going, but we can sense the Spirit's effect.
Another view
I see that the subject line keeps changing on this post.
Pr. Keys and I had a discussion over lunch at the conclusion of our last Synod Council meeting in February, re: the Great Emergence structural model of "believe-behave-belong" vs. "belong-behave-believe". I think we agreed that this isn't necessarily linear, either clockwise or counter-clockwise.
So what if it's either triangular, or circular? And people enter at whatever point they're ready, and proceed in their own direction from there? (The Spirit moves as It wills)?
A little while later, I found myself in this conversation with my son in Corvallis over breakfast. He opined that running around, clockwise or counter-clockwise, in this "lemming line" isn't productive. We talked about opening the model to three dimensional. If "believe-belong-belong" (or its reverse) is the ground floor, maybe "becoming" starts to lift us off that floor? This is, for me, the vertical side of the Cross. God comes down to us, and we reach up to the Kingdom.
A pyramid?
Origami of the mind
My head hurts. I'm trying to put the question into three dimensions . . . Great question and good discussion.
For me the question is where do you get on the merry-go-round, be it two dimentional or three dimentional. We used to jump on with belief. "I am a Christian, therefore I should be going to church." or "Do you know Jesus Christ as your personal Lord and Savior?" These are both "believe" type questions.
Last week Diane Butler Bass was speaking here in the Portland. She mentioned the many people she talks with (often on airplanes) who say, "I just can't believe that . . . (fill in the blank) anymore." The answers don't seem to fit the questions. BUT, people want to belong. They want frieds. They want "peole." Whatever the shape of the folded and refolded paper crane I'm intreged by where and how we enter into conversation. I think invitation and presence is the answer. Are people welcome at our churches as they are, with or without a fully formed faith, or even, with or without the desire to have a traditionally, fully formed, faith?
It's a choice!
Hey Folks: It's interesting to read through these notes, as we're having a blast at Zion in Redmond. After a cumulative loss of 25% in worship attendance and financial support at Zion since 2007, we're growing in both those areas. We have an energized group of confirmation kids, and a revitalized kid's choir that has doubled in the past 15 months. There are far too many things to mention, but people are becoming engaged in ministry, and it's exciting.
Glen Chase and I talked 6 months ago about Stephen Ministry, as we have 7 people who have been trained elsewhere, so we've re-engaged them, paid the 2k to Stephen's, so now we're the only Stephen Ministry ELCA congregation in Central Oregon.
Many, many times I've told the people at Zion that growth is perfunctory. It's not rocket science. There are things you don't do, and things you do do. The question is whether people/leadership/congregation is willing to do what it takes to change and grow.
And that goes for the synod level, too, I think. When I came to Oregon 13 years ago there were about 52,000 ELCA Lutherans in the state of 3.5 million, representing 1.8 percent of the population. Now there are less than 40,000 ELCA Lutherans in the state of 4 million, representing 1 percent of the population. No wonder Schwartling made the comment above. If current trends continue, it's clear to see where the future is.
That's what I told the good people at Zion last fall. If those Zion trends since 2007 were to continue, in 10 years we'd be half our size, unable to pay the light bill, and we'd be a merged congregation with Sisters.
Or at Zion we could do the necessary things for growth, discipleship, outreach, stewardship, education, and worship. It's a choice. And not all the changes have been initially welcomed, since some people had become comfortable with their father's 1969 Oldsmobile church. However, now that they're seeing the beginning results of revitilization, they're going "Aha..." People are looking for much more than "friends." They can get friends to do service work at Kiwanis. They're looking for transformation, meaning, and purpose. Most people hardly know that's what they're looking for, but they know it when they see it.
And one of the biggest challenges facing the church today is lack of imagination and courage, I think.
Bishop John Maas and I had a great conversation on SoulCafe about organizing the synod around healthy congregations and pastors, but it ended up just a two person conversation. I think Bishop Maas should come out of retirement. He's got far too many good ideas to let ferment.
Finally, we heard that the assets of Bethlehem are going to the synod. What are the plans for the eventual use of those assets? Are there plans to use it to start mission congregations? With all the unchurched people in Oregon, it seems that would put it toward very good use.
Eric Burtness
Zion, Redmond
Bishop? Humph. Change? Humm
I don't want to be a bishop, thank you. We changed the name of our geograph leader from District President to Bishop without changing anything about the job. No more staff, no less geography, no less demands from National. If it's a biblical concept of Bishop than David ought to be able to spend the majority of his time in relationship to a manageable number of Pastors and congregregations or have enough staff to do so with more than one person can handle.
How's that workin', Bishop?
I studied with Mary Kate Morse at Geo Fox while on sabbatical some years ago. Her speciality is team ministry. I wanted to reshape our parish leadership from a confedeeration of lone rangers to a unit working with a commonly set and sought mission. I described who I had as staff. She suggested that trying to be a team with the personalities I had would be . . . difficult. She was too polite to say it was almost impossible. I couldn't fiigure out how to fire my wife, so I didn't make the changes necessary. We puttered along reasonably well until it just didn't work too well and I retired.
So, there's a look at our Synod, I think. Yes, yes, generally speaking. Horray of you innovators and those of you who have the courage to hire, fire and build for a mission. But I think most of us are just too . . . I was going to say comfortable, but I don't think that's the word. . . . How about, we're in a torpor and we need a Jesus, or John the Baptist, or Jeremiah to get us off the dime.
At this point my hope is that we can blow on the embers of those who ARE breaking barriers and traditions and trying and failing and trying again with more success.
Give to the Endowment fund so we can keep those embers glowing long enough to catch fire again, because I think the fire will go out if we just rely on just going on the way most of us are.
BTW -- anyone want a bible study leader, or have any good ideas that I could fool around with? I'm getting bored playing computer games.
Witnessing about Invitation and Presence
I started attending church and entered into this ongoing conversation being taught "I am a Christian, therefore I go to church."
Church involvement and attendance for me, that was motivated primarily from Christian duty, worked for many years. Church membership at that time seemed intrinsic to being an upstanding member of the community.
It is interesting that the next question "Do you know Jesus Christ as your personal Lord and Savior?" struck me as one the rather joyless questions that motivated my decision not to pursue ongoing faith formation through church.
When I attempted to express explorations of personal belief in words as a young man, there were congregation members and my pastor at the time who felt the best guidance was to ask questions, like the above, to pressure me through isolation; or to offer pronouncements like, "You can't believe that... (fill in the blank) and be Christian (or Lutheran, depending on what I said)".
I struggled with guilt about church attendance during those years until I abandoned the notion that church membership was integral to being a good neighbor.
Your last question, Dave, highlights the crucial difference between a congregation I left long ago and an inspirational, welcoming congregation where I have now found a church that is both challenging and nurturing
Doctrinal Arrogance -- that is, Blinders
Gary -- those kind of stupid questions -- dull-witted brushing off of one who is an inquirer -- are one of the reasons for empty churches and societal disregard of "institutional" religion.
Why do we seem so afraid to say things like, "I don't have a good answer for you?" or "I don't know but I'll talk to people who might." or "I've never thought of that, lemme have some time to digest that and then we'll need to talk."
Invitation and Challenge
Gary,
Thanks for your thoughts and reflections. It's too bad that at those seminal moments of your formation you didn't have a someone with whom you could share in the deep and powerful mystery of questions. I believe it is Einstein who said, "The important thing is not to stop questioning." And, I'm confident that Paul Tillich would have considered your questions a revelation of your desired relationship with a God in whom you clearly believed.
My thought primarily is for those of us as leaders who are faced with similar questions today. In looking at the model of Jesus and his disciples it seems to me that his relationship with them is defined by invitation and challenge, comfort and rebuke. In "Building a Disciping Culture" Mike Breen and Steve Cockram suggest that most mainline ministry is done in one of three ways. We are most familiar with the "Cozy Culture" in American Lutheranism where the norm is high invitation and low challenge..."be with me, I promise not to talk too much about Jesus, picking up your cross, or making disciples. We'll just smile at each other, drink coffee, and give money to the food bank." There are a few places where both invitation and challenge are diminished, too. They tend to be the nearly closed church where a matriarch or patriarch foots the bill so you don't dare ruffle feathers and the group is too small to actually be welcoming to others, but functions as essentially closed off. The culture you described in your encounter would have likely been a 'discouraged culture'. That is to say, there were high expectations of behavioral and doctrinal conformity with little patience for the growth of a disciple or (heaven forbid!) questions. The model that I aspire to, and that I see modeled in Jesus' relationships with his disciples is one that results in an 'empowered culture'. An empowered culture welcomes people into relationship. The culture is not threatened by profound questions but will instead encourage personal reflection and intentional study as practices that enable a fledgling disciple to live into the relationship. It does not expect thoughtless conformity, but a high level of participation and personal flare. An empowered culture insists that our questions are yet another avenue for encounter with a God who can not only handle those questions being asked, but who would fan the flames just in case our questions would actually bring us closer to a holistic relationship.
I don't know the answer to a lot of questions. I hope that I have the confidence to say as much. Thanks for reminding me of that.
Eric
Oregonizing for Mission?
I hope this discussion continues into our Assembly.
Comments about welcoming inquirers, being about helping with personal transformation, and modeling an "empowered culture" are not my father's Oldsmobile (or Buick) way of talking about doing church. And I'm thinking it's not about liberal/conservative, dissing rednecks with guns on pickup racks or touting the latest cutting edge social issues - whether occupying or Prius/Volt affiliations? What is/should be our marketing of our Power source?
Perhaps instead of seeking growth and more "members" we should more affirmatively seek out broken hearts, minds, and bodies, be willing to risk death of the seeds we are, and offer what we've experienced - amazing grace - to these ugly, stinky, stubborn, contemptuous, uninformed, and confused populations unfamiliar with anything like what Lutherans or Christians are, apart from media distortions? I'm still learning how to be willing and able to speak the truth with love. I heard today that the German church is called Evangelical, not Lutheran :).
Wishing all of you a blessed Palm Sunday, Holy Week and Easter....
Bruce Anderson
belonging
I like belonging because whether we believe or not, God believes in us. I read in the Bible "love your neighbor" and it resonates with me so I bring food to the food bank. Like wind through a wind chime. The Holy Spirit blows through us.
That is the one thing I like about Lutheran worship. Four chunks of scripture every Sunday. Don't ask people to believe, just ask them to feel the wind.